Study 3 · Trust in medical AI

Study 3: every table and figure

Each analysis from the dissertation, rebuilt from the released data, with a figure beside every table. Hover over any mark for the details.

Deep dive: every table and figure

The rest of this page rebuilds each analysis from the public data. Hover over any mark for the details, and open the guide below if a term is unfamiliar.

Plain-language guide to the terms
Trust
How willing someone is to follow the advice. In these studies, people rated this from 0 (not at all) to 10 (completely).
Quantitative reasoning
Deciding with numbers, data and statistics, like reading a lab result.
Intuition
Deciding with experience and judgment, like a doctor sensing that something is off when the tests look fine.
Effect size (Cohen's d)
How big a difference is, on a scale that can be compared across studies. This site uses the Funder and Ozer (2019) labels for psychology: about 0.20 is small, 0.41 is medium, 0.63 is large, and 0.87 or more is very large.
95% interval
The range of values the true average probably falls in. A narrow range means a precise estimate; a range that includes zero means the difference may not be real.
p value
How surprising the result would be if there were no real difference. A p below .05 is the usual bar for calling a result reliable, and "p < .001" means chance is a very unlikely explanation.
Mixed model
A way to analyze data when each person gives many ratings, so that people who rate everything high or low do not distort the results.
Mediation
A test of whether one thing explains part of the link between two others. Here: does seeing a doctor as more competent explain part of why people trust the doctor more?
Preregistered
The plan for the study and its analysis was written and posted publicly before anyone looked at the data.

How to read this page. Each person saw one source only, so every comparison is between groups of different people. Trust and belief are on a scale from −3 to 3, warmth and competence from 0 to 4. The public file groups age into four bands, so the models that used age in years use the band number (1 = 18 to 44, 4 = 70 and over); their age coefficients differ from the dissertation's in scale.

Who took part

609 adults rated trust. 240 saw the humanlike ai, 240 saw the standard ai, 129 saw the doctor.

Table 1. The people in the released file

What to look for. The share in each group. Younger adults and women make up the largest groups.

Group People Share
Age group: 18-4431251.2%
Age group: 45-5913021.3%
Age group: 60-696110.0%
Age group: 70+559.0%
Gender: Woman31551.7%
Gender: Man24740.6%
Race: White35658.5%
Race: Another or multiple21234.8%
Education: No college degree36559.9%
Education: College degree or more20333.3%
How religious: Not at all to slightly22637.1%
How religious: Moderately16426.9%
How religious: More than moderately17729.1%

Shares are of all 609 people. Left blank in the file: age group (51), gender (47), race (41), education (41), how religious (42). Race is shown as White or another or multiple because no other group reached 30 people. Age is in bands; exact age is not released.

Table 1 as a figure

Each bar is the share of the 609 people in that group. Hover a bar for the head count.

0%20%40%60%80%100% Age group 18-44 (n = 312) 45-59 (n = 130) 60-69 (n = 61) 70+ (n = 55) Gender Woman (n = 315) Man (n = 247) Race White (n = 356) Another or multiple (n = 212) Education No college degree (n = 365) College degree or more (n = 203) How religious Not at all to slightly (n = 226) Moderately (n = 164) More than moderately (n = 177) Share of people (%)

The three sources and the check

People were randomly assigned to read the same health recommendation from a doctor, from a standard AI or from an AI described in humanlike terms. To check the framing, people in the two AI conditions rated how humanlike the AI seemed on a scale from 0 to 4.

Table 2. How humanlike the AI seemed (0 to 4)

What to look for. The two means are close together and the interval for the difference includes zero, so people did not see the humanlike AI as more humanlike.

Comparison Humanlike AI, Standard AI: mean (SD) Difference [95% CI] t (df) p d [95% CI]
How humanlike the AI seemed: humanlike AI versus standard AI1.64 (1.16), 1.54 (1.04)0.10 [−0.10, 0.30]0.98 (471).3280.09 [−0.09, 0.27]

Welch t test, two-sided. Only the two AI conditions answered this question.

Figure 1. How humanlike the AI seemed

Each dot is one person's rating, from 0 (not at all humanlike) to 4 (very humanlike). The two clouds overlap almost completely.

Humanlike AI 1.6 Standard AI 1.5 01234 How humanlike the AI seemed (0 to 4)

Outline: how answers are spread (smoothed). Dots: one person each. Diamond and bar: the average and its bootstrapped 95% interval.

View as a table
MeasurenMean95% interval
Humanlike AI2391.61.5 to 1.8
Standard AI2401.51.4 to 1.7

Trust, belief, warmth and competence

The preregistered questions were whether the doctor was trusted more than the AIs, and whether the humanlike AI was trusted more than the standard one. The tables give the descriptives, the omnibus test and then each comparison.

Table 3. Ratings by source

What to look for. Compare means within a measure. The doctor is highest on trust, belief and warmth; the two AIs sit close together.

Measure and source n Mean SD SE 95% CI Median Min Max
Trust (−3 to 3): Humanlike AI2400.521.460.09[0.33, 0.70]1.00−3.003.00
Trust (−3 to 3): Standard AI2400.411.530.10[0.22, 0.61]1.00−3.003.00
Trust (−3 to 3): Doctor1290.861.590.14[0.58, 1.14]1.00−3.003.00
Belief (−3 to 3): Humanlike AI2400.651.490.10[0.47, 0.84]1.00−3.003.00
Belief (−3 to 3): Standard AI2400.611.510.10[0.42, 0.80]1.00−3.003.00
Belief (−3 to 3): Doctor1290.981.410.12[0.74, 1.23]1.00−3.003.00
Warmth (0 to 4): Humanlike AI2391.541.150.07[1.39, 1.69]2.000.004.00
Warmth (0 to 4): Standard AI2401.441.180.08[1.29, 1.59]1.000.004.00
Warmth (0 to 4): Doctor1282.001.080.10[1.81, 2.19]2.000.004.00
Competence (0 to 4): Humanlike AI2401.861.120.07[1.72, 2.00]2.000.004.00
Competence (0 to 4): Standard AI2392.001.090.07[1.86, 2.13]2.000.004.00
Competence (0 to 4): Doctor1292.250.960.08[2.08, 2.42]2.000.004.00

Standard errors and intervals are for each group's mean.

Figure 2. Trust, every person

Each dot is one person's trust rating, from −3 (no trust) to 3 (complete trust). The curve shows where ratings pile up, and the bar marks the mean with its 95% interval.

Doctor 0.9 Humanlike AI 0.5 Standard AI 0.4 -3-2-10123 Trust (−3 to 3)

Outline: how answers are spread (smoothed). Dots: one person each. Diamond and bar: the average and its bootstrapped 95% interval.

View as a table
MeasurenMean95% interval
Doctor1290.90.6 to 1.1
Humanlike AI2400.50.3 to 0.7
Standard AI2400.40.2 to 0.6

Figure 3. Belief, every person

The same display for belief in the recommendation.

Doctor 1.0 Humanlike AI 0.7 Standard AI 0.6 -3-2-10123 Belief (−3 to 3)

Outline: how answers are spread (smoothed). Dots: one person each. Diamond and bar: the average and its bootstrapped 95% interval.

View as a table
MeasurenMean95% interval
Doctor1291.00.7 to 1.2
Humanlike AI2400.70.5 to 0.8
Standard AI2400.60.4 to 0.8

Figure 4. Warmth, every person

The same display for how warm the source seemed, from 0 to 4.

Doctor 2.0 Humanlike AI 1.5 Standard AI 1.4 01234 Warmth (0 to 4)

Outline: how answers are spread (smoothed). Dots: one person each. Diamond and bar: the average and its bootstrapped 95% interval.

View as a table
MeasurenMean95% interval
Doctor1282.01.8 to 2.2
Humanlike AI2391.51.4 to 1.7
Standard AI2401.41.3 to 1.6

Figure 5. Competence, every person

The same display for how competent the source seemed, from 0 to 4.

Doctor 2.3 Humanlike AI 1.9 Standard AI 2.0 01234 Competence (0 to 4)

Outline: how answers are spread (smoothed). Dots: one person each. Diamond and bar: the average and its bootstrapped 95% interval.

View as a table
MeasurenMean95% interval
Doctor1292.32.1 to 2.4
Humanlike AI2401.91.7 to 2.0
Standard AI2392.01.9 to 2.1

Figure 6. Means and intervals

Table 3 as a figure. Each dot is a mean with its 95% interval, one panel per measure. Where the doctor's interval sits clear of the other two, the doctor was rated higher.

Trust −0.500.511.5 Mean (−3 to 3) Belief −0.500.511.5 Mean (−3 to 3) Warmth 11.522.5 Mean (0 to 4) Competence 1.51.822.32.5 Mean (0 to 4) Doctor Humanlike AI Standard AI
View as a table
Source Trust: mean [95% interval]Belief: mean [95% interval]Warmth: mean [95% interval]Competence: mean [95% interval]
Doctor 0.9 [0.6, 1.1]1.0 [0.7, 1.2]2.0 [1.8, 2.2]2.3 [2.1, 2.4]
Humanlike AI 0.5 [0.3, 0.7]0.7 [0.5, 0.8]1.5 [1.4, 1.7]1.9 [1.7, 2.0]
Standard AI 0.4 [0.2, 0.6]0.6 [0.4, 0.8]1.4 [1.3, 1.6]2.0 [1.9, 2.1]
Table 4. One-way ANOVAs across the three sources

What to look for. The F and p columns say whether the three sources differ at all; the last three columns say which pairs do, after adjusting for three comparisons.

Measure n F (df) p η² Tukey p: doctor, standard AI Tukey p: doctor, humanlike AI Tukey p: humanlike, standard AI
Trust609F(2, 606) = 3.75.024.012.019.096.732
Belief609F(2, 606) = 2.91.055.010.056.103.949
Warmth607F(2, 604) = 10.55< .001.034< .001< .001.592
Competence608F(2, 605) = 5.52.004.018.081.003.341

Tukey HSD for the three pairwise comparisons.

Table 4 as a figure

Each bar is η², the share of the variation in that rating that the source explains. All are small; warmth is the largest.

0.0000.0100.0200.0300.0400.0500.060 Trust Belief Warmth Competence η²
Table 5. Planned and additional comparisons

What to look for. The d column, with its interval, tells you how large each difference is. Compare the doctor rows with the humanlike-versus-standard rows.

Comparison First, Second: mean (SD) Difference [95% CI] t (df) p d [95% CI] Kind Tukey p
Trust: Doctor versus the two AI conditions combined0.86 (1.59), 0.46 (1.50)0.40 [0.09, 0.70]2.54 (193.21).0120.26 [0.07, 0.46]Planned
Trust: Humanlike AI versus standard AI0.52 (1.46), 0.41 (1.53)0.10 [−0.16, 0.37]0.76 (477.11).4460.07 [−0.11, 0.25]Planned.732
Trust: Doctor versus standard AI0.86 (1.59), 0.41 (1.53)0.45 [0.11, 0.79]2.62 (253.27).0090.29 [0.07, 0.50]Additional.019
Trust: Doctor versus humanlike AI0.86 (1.59), 0.52 (1.46)0.34 [0.01, 0.68]2.04 (244.06).0430.23 [0.01, 0.44]Additional.096
Belief: Doctor versus the two AI conditions combined0.98 (1.41), 0.63 (1.50)0.35 [0.07, 0.63]2.47 (211.42).0140.24 [0.04, 0.43]Planned
Belief: Humanlike AI versus standard AI0.65 (1.49), 0.61 (1.51)0.04 [−0.23, 0.31]0.30 (477.91).7610.03 [−0.15, 0.21]Planned.949
Belief: Doctor versus standard AI0.98 (1.41), 0.61 (1.51)0.37 [0.06, 0.68]2.35 (276.78).0190.25 [0.04, 0.47]Additional.056
Belief: Doctor versus humanlike AI0.98 (1.41), 0.65 (1.49)0.33 [0.02, 0.64]2.10 (273.56).0370.23 [0.01, 0.44]Additional.103
Warmth: Doctor versus the two AI conditions combined2.00 (1.08), 1.49 (1.16)0.51 [0.30, 0.73]4.68 (212.45)< .0010.45 [0.25, 0.64]Planned
Warmth: Humanlike AI versus standard AI1.54 (1.15), 1.44 (1.18)0.10 [−0.11, 0.31]0.96 (476.79).3360.09 [−0.09, 0.27]Planned.592
Warmth: Doctor versus standard AI2.00 (1.08), 1.44 (1.18)0.56 [0.32, 0.80]4.61 (279.4)< .0010.49 [0.27, 0.71]Additional< .001
Warmth: Doctor versus humanlike AI2.00 (1.08), 1.54 (1.15)0.46 [0.22, 0.70]3.81 (273.72)< .0010.41 [0.19, 0.63]Additional< .001
Competence: Doctor versus the two AI conditions combined2.25 (0.96), 1.93 (1.10)0.32 [0.13, 0.52]3.26 (227.57).0010.30 [0.10, 0.49]Planned
Competence: Humanlike AI versus standard AI1.86 (1.12), 2.00 (1.09)−0.14 [−0.34, 0.06]−1.36 (476.84).173−0.12 [−0.30, 0.05]Planned.341
Competence: Doctor versus standard AI2.25 (0.96), 2.00 (1.09)0.25 [0.04, 0.47]2.29 (292.05).0230.24 [0.03, 0.46]Additional.081
Competence: Doctor versus humanlike AI2.25 (0.96), 1.86 (1.12)0.39 [0.17, 0.61]3.51 (297.15)< .0010.37 [0.15, 0.58]Additional.003

Welch t tests, two-sided. d uses the pooled standard deviation and is positive when the first group is higher. Planned comparisons were preregistered; the rest are additional. The Tukey column adjusts for the three pairwise comparisons.

Figure 7. Effect sizes

Table 5 as a figure. Each dot is Cohen's d with a 95% interval. The dashed lines mark a small, medium and large effect on the Funder and Ozer scale. An interval that crosses zero cannot rule out no difference.

smallmediumlarge −0.40−0.200.000.200.400.600.80 Trust Doctor versus both AIs Humanlike versus standard AI Doctor versus standard AI Doctor versus humanlike AI Belief Doctor versus both AIs Humanlike versus standard AI Doctor versus standard AI Doctor versus humanlike AI Warmth Doctor versus both AIs Humanlike versus standard AI Doctor versus standard AI Doctor versus humanlike AI Competence Doctor versus both AIs Humanlike versus standard AI Doctor versus standard AI Doctor versus humanlike AI Cohen's d, first group minus second
Table 6. What the study could detect

What to look for. The d column is the smallest true difference this design would find 80% of the time. Smaller true differences could easily have been missed.

Comparison n, first n, second Smallest detectable d
Doctor versus the two AI conditions combined1294800.28
Humanlike AI versus standard AI2402400.26
Doctor versus standard AI1292400.31
Doctor versus humanlike AI1292400.31

Two-sided Welch test, α = .05, power = .80.

Table 6 as a figure

Each bar is the smallest effect, in standard deviations, that the comparison could reliably detect.

0.000.100.200.300.40 Doctor versus both AIs Humanlike versus standard AI Doctor versus standard AI Doctor versus humanlike AI Smallest detectable d

Regression models

Each model predicts a rating from the source. The reference group is the humanlike AI. The second model adds gender and age group, and the third adds warmth and competence. When warmth and competence enter, the doctor's coefficient falls close to zero.

Table 7a. Trust: condition only

What to look for. The Doctor row is the gap from the humanlike AI. Compare it across the three versions of the model.

Predictor b 95% CI SE t p
Intercept0.517[0.325, 0.709]0.0985.28< .001
Standard AI (versus humanlike AI)−0.104[−0.374, 0.166]0.138−0.75.452
Doctor (versus humanlike AI)0.344[0.019, 0.669]0.1662.08.038

609 people. R² .012, adjusted R² .009, 606 residual degrees of freedom. Intervals are b ± 1.96 SE.

Table 7a as a figure. Each dot is a coefficient (b) with its 95% interval; zero means no difference from the reference.

−0.60−0.40−0.200.000.200.400.600.80 Standard AI (versus humanlike AI) Doctor (versus humanlike AI) Effect on trust (points)
Table 7b. Trust: add gender and age

What to look for. The Doctor row is the gap from the humanlike AI. Compare it across the three versions of the model.

Predictor b 95% CI SE t p
Intercept0.440[0.128, 0.752]0.1592.76.006
Standard AI (versus humanlike AI)−0.054[−0.338, 0.230]0.145−0.38.707
Doctor (versus humanlike AI)0.395[0.058, 0.732]0.1722.29.022
Man (versus woman)−0.124[−0.377, 0.129]0.129−0.96.338
Age group (1 to 4)0.080[−0.045, 0.205]0.0641.24.214

553 people. R² .017, adjusted R² .010, 548 residual degrees of freedom. Intervals are b ± 1.96 SE.

Table 7b as a figure. Each dot is a coefficient (b) with its 95% interval; zero means no difference from the reference.

−0.60−0.40−0.200.000.200.400.600.801.00 Standard AI (versus humanlike AI) Doctor (versus humanlike AI) Man (versus woman) Age group (1 to 4) Effect on trust (points)
Table 7c. Trust: add warmth and competence

What to look for. The Doctor row is the gap from the humanlike AI. Compare it across the three versions of the model.

Predictor b 95% CI SE t p
Intercept−1.407[−1.740, −1.074]0.170−8.29< .001
Standard AI (versus humanlike AI)−0.185[−0.416, 0.046]0.118−1.57.118
Doctor (versus humanlike AI)0.018[−0.260, 0.296]0.1420.13.899
Man (versus woman)−0.205[−0.411, 0.001]0.105−1.95.051
Age group (1 to 4)0.234[0.130, 0.338]0.0534.41< .001
Warmth0.162[0.050, 0.274]0.0572.86.004
Competence0.729[0.607, 0.851]0.06211.85< .001

552 people. R² .354, adjusted R² .347, 545 residual degrees of freedom. Intervals are b ± 1.96 SE.

Table 7c as a figure. Each dot is a coefficient (b) with its 95% interval; zero means no difference from the reference.

−0.60−0.40−0.200.000.200.400.600.801.00 Standard AI (versus humanlike AI) Doctor (versus humanlike AI) Man (versus woman) Age group (1 to 4) Warmth Competence Effect on trust (points)
Table 8a. Belief: condition only

What to look for. The Doctor row is the gap from the humanlike AI. Compare it across the three versions of the model.

Predictor b 95% CI SE t p
Intercept0.654[0.466, 0.842]0.0966.85< .001
Standard AI (versus humanlike AI)−0.042[−0.307, 0.223]0.135−0.31.758
Doctor (versus humanlike AI)0.330[0.012, 0.648]0.1622.04.041

609 people. R² .010, adjusted R² .006, 606 residual degrees of freedom. Intervals are b ± 1.96 SE.

Table 8a as a figure. Each dot is a coefficient (b) with its 95% interval; zero means no difference from the reference.

−0.60−0.40−0.200.000.200.400.600.80 Standard AI (versus humanlike AI) Doctor (versus humanlike AI) Effect on belief (points)
Table 8b. Belief: add gender and age

What to look for. The Doctor row is the gap from the humanlike AI. Compare it across the three versions of the model.

Predictor b 95% CI SE t p
Intercept0.650[0.346, 0.954]0.1554.19< .001
Standard AI (versus humanlike AI)−0.004[−0.280, 0.272]0.141−0.03.975
Doctor (versus humanlike AI)0.387[0.058, 0.716]0.1682.30.022
Man (versus woman)−0.070[−0.317, 0.177]0.126−0.56.578
Age group (1 to 4)0.027[−0.095, 0.149]0.0620.43.668

553 people. R² .012, adjusted R² .005, 548 residual degrees of freedom. Intervals are b ± 1.96 SE.

Table 8b as a figure. Each dot is a coefficient (b) with its 95% interval; zero means no difference from the reference.

−0.60−0.40−0.200.000.200.400.600.801.00 Standard AI (versus humanlike AI) Doctor (versus humanlike AI) Man (versus woman) Age group (1 to 4) Effect on belief (points)
Table 8c. Belief: add warmth and competence

What to look for. The Doctor row is the gap from the humanlike AI. Compare it across the three versions of the model.

Predictor b 95% CI SE t p
Intercept−1.025[−1.360, −0.690]0.171−5.98< .001
Standard AI (versus humanlike AI)−0.118[−0.351, 0.115]0.119−0.99.324
Doctor (versus humanlike AI)0.041[−0.241, 0.323]0.1440.28.777
Man (versus woman)−0.144[−0.352, 0.064]0.106−1.36.176
Age group (1 to 4)0.168[0.064, 0.272]0.0533.14.002
Warmth0.174[0.062, 0.286]0.0573.06.002
Competence0.637[0.515, 0.759]0.06210.26< .001

552 people. R² .304, adjusted R² .297, 545 residual degrees of freedom. Intervals are b ± 1.96 SE.

Table 8c as a figure. Each dot is a coefficient (b) with its 95% interval; zero means no difference from the reference.

−0.60−0.40−0.200.000.200.400.600.801.00 Standard AI (versus humanlike AI) Doctor (versus humanlike AI) Man (versus woman) Age group (1 to 4) Warmth Competence Effect on belief (points)

What goes with trust

Trust and belief are very close (r = .787). Competence goes with trust more than warmth does.

Table 9. Correlations among the four ratings

What to look for. Every correlation is positive. Trust moves most with belief and next with competence.

Pair r
Trust and Belief.787
Trust and Warmth.404
Trust and Competence.568
Belief and Warmth.392
Belief and Competence.525
Warmth and Competence.595

Pearson correlations among the 606 people with all four ratings.

Figure 10. Correlation grid

Table 9 as a figure. Each square is the correlation between two ratings. Darker means the two move together more strongly.

All sources together TrustBeliefWarmthCompetence Trust .79 .40 .57 Belief .79 .39 .53 Warmth .40 .39 .59 Competence .57 .53 .59